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We’re back after a week off, ready to dive back with a grab bag of sports this week.
It’s the curse of the calendar: as of writing on Thursday, one half of both the NBA and NHL Finals is set, but one conference final each is still unresolved.
Those two series might both be wrapped up by Friday when this hits your doorsteps, but I can’t predict the future. If I could, I’d have a better record doing this. Not a perfect one, that would be suspicious, but a really good one.
So in lieu of basketball and hockey, I’ve got us covered in baseball, tennis and the race track. The French Open kicked off on Sunday, and there’s already been some underdogs winning and some heavy hitters taken down on the clay.
I found a couple plus-money options I really like, and an angle on a marquee Friday night game on the diamond.
Let’s jump in.
Last Time: 2-1
YTD: 38-29
Yankees-Dodgers OVER 8 (-118)
Friday, 10:15 p.m., Apple TV Plus
It’s a World Series rematch in Los Angeles on Friday night, the first of a three-game set between the Yanks and the Dodgers this weekend.
The Yankees have been red-hot lately, winning nine of their last 10. The Dodgers are right up near the top of the league as well at 34-22 despite some injuries to their pitching staff.
It’s Max Fried for New York and Tony Gonsolin for LA, and that’s an edge for the Yankees. Fried’s been arguably the best pitcher in baseball thus far, with a 7-0 record and a league-leading 1.27 ERA.
But I’m not backing a side here, I’m taking the over even with Fried on the hill.
For one, I have much less faith in Gonsolin, who missed the beginning of the year with an injury and has gotten knocked around in his last two starts.
The Yankees lineup has been fairly quiet even as they’ve been winning with a lot of low-scoring wins. I think they’re due, to put it simply.
It’s also impossible to discount a Dodgers lineup that goes Betts-Shohei-Freeman at the top, with plenty more big bats down the order. Even as good as Fried’s been, this is a lineup that rarely gets dominated to the degree he’s dominated some other teams.
Eight runs isn’t a ton, I’d feel very comfortable taking it at 8.5 for better juice or if the number jumps up there on its own.
Tommy Paul +105 vs. Karen Khachanov (French Open Third Round)
Saturday, time TBD, TNT/Max
Not even the French Open knows what time this match is starting. The ESPN app estimates it to be about 6:30 a.m., but in reality it will probably be later in the morning.
Anyway, Tommy Paul is a seeding favorite but a betting underdog in this matchup against Khachanov, with both men coming off of five-set marathon wins in the second round.
Paul, the top American left in the field after Taylor Fritz’s shocking exit in the first round, looked to be following Fritz’s lead down two sets in his last match.
But he dug it out, and I think he’s in a good spot here against Khachanov as a slight underdog.
The two men have played twice before, with Paul winning both encounters. The most recent one was just last month on the clay in Madrid, where Paul took down Khachanov in three sets.
Though Paul’s not great on clay — this current crop of Americans really struggles on the surface — he’s got that win last month to point to as proof he could beat Khachanov on clay.
People will look at those first two sets Paul played on Wednesday as proof of his struggles, but I’m looking at the way he rallied and gutted out the final three.
There’s no style points for winning in straight sets or by big margins, all that matters is your name moving to the next spot on the bracket.
Max Verstappen Top 2 +150 (Spanish GP)
Sunday, 9 a.m., ESPN
I missed racing’s biggest weekend last week, the Memorial Day tripleheader of the Monaco GP, the Indy 500 and the Coca-Cola 600.
While Formula One’s entry into the weekend, Monaco, was a snooze-fest, this week in Barcelona should be a bit more exciting.
Max Verstappen’s bid for a fifth straight world championship is in jeopardy, but he’s still very much in that top tier of drivers capable of winning any given week. Only three drivers have won through the first eight races; Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris have three each, and Verstappen’s got two.
I said this the last time I included a Formula One pick, but it’s tough to pick these races before qualifying. Even on a track where there’s typically some passing, the top qualifiers typically end up the top finishers on Sunday.
So if Max blows a tire or something and starts behind in the pack, then I’m in trouble. But if he’s anywhere near the top, I love him to make his way into the Top 2.
The Spanish GP is Verstappen’s best race (and he’s been excellent in pretty much all of them): he’s won three in a row on this track, four wins total, and has made the podium eight times.
The McLaren cars have proven to be near-impossible to catch with six wins in eight races, but with this bet Verstappen’s just got to catch one of them.