Ahmedabad plane crash: Time to understand the big picture

The nation mourns and prays for the victims of Air India flight AI171, which tragically crashed shortly after departing from Ahmedabad en route to London Gatwick on Thursday, June 12. The airline has officially announced that 241 out of 242 people on board the Boeing 787-8 aircraft died in the tragic crash that took place immediately after take-off. Barring one miracle survivor, Vishwaskumar Ramesh, no one else could be rescued.

The aircraft took off at 1:38 pm. Just a few minutes later, the aircraft plummeted into the B J Medical College hostel mess 5 km from the airport. 28 people were killed on the ground. A towering plume of smoke was visible from afar after a massive explosion. The pilots reportedly gave a ‘Mayday’ call immediately after takeoff, signalling a life-threatening emergency, but did not respond to subsequent calls made by the airport traffic control.

According to flight tracking data, the signal from the aircraft was lost at an altitude of just 625 feet, moments after take-off. It then descended with a vertical speed of 475 feet per minute and crashed. Due to the long-distance flight, the aircraft had a huge amount of fuel (1.25 lakh litres), and this, coupled with the very high temperature from the explosion, meant no one could be rescued. This is the first wide-body crash for an Indian airline in four decades, the last being the bombing of Air India Boeing 747 ‘Kanishka’ in June 1985. This one is also the worst take-off or landing accident in Indian civil aviation history. It is also the first crash of a Boeing 787 globally.

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Aircraft Accident Investigation Begins

Six National Disaster Relief Force (NDRF) teams were on the spot helping rescue work. While post-crash support helplines have been established, the aircraft “Black Box” that records in very great detail all the aircraft flight and technical parameters, as well as the cockpit crew voice recording, has been recovered. The accident will be investigated by the Indian government’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), an attached office of the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA).

Once the rescue operations are called off, AAIB is expected to cordon off the accident site for collecting evidence, particularly perishable evidence that may not be available later. The AAIB would also gather recordings and data from the Air Traffic Control (ATC), radar stations, along with meteorological records, and any other required data or information from the airport, airline and other stakeholders. The US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has offered to send a team of investigators to assist the AAIB. Boeing said that it was in touch with Air India regarding AI-171 and stood ready to support the airline. The final AAIB report has to be completed within one year from the accident.

A lot of armchair analysts have started conjecturing on the “breaking news hungry” print and audiovisual media. They are shooting from the hip about possible bird-hit, loss of engines, hydraulic failure, landing gear not going up, flaps sliding up, wrong selection of flaps, among many others, including conspiracy theories. It is best to wait for accident investigation experts who will analyse the technical evidence.

Boeing 787 Dreamliner

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner prototype was rolled out on July 8, 2007. The first 787-8 joined All Nippon Airways of Japan on October 26, 2011. At launch, the 787 offered 20 per cent less fuel burn compared to the Boeing 767. The twinjet is powered by General Electric GEnx or Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 high-bypass turbofans. It is the first airliner with an airframe primarily made of composite materials and makes greater use of electrical systems. Externally, it is recognisable by its four-window cockpit, raked wingtips, and noise-reducing chevrons on its engine nacelles. The 186-foot-long 787-8 typically seats 248 passengers over a range of 13,529 km.

The early 787 operations encountered several problems caused mainly by its lithium-ion batteries, including fires on board some aircraft. In January 2013, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) grounded all 787s until it approved the revised battery design in April 2013. Significant quality control issues from 2019 onwards caused a production slowdown and, from January 2021 until August 2022, an almost total cessation of deliveries. The Ahmedabad accident has been the first hull loss of the aircraft.

Boeing has spent $32 billion on the programme; estimates for the number of aircraft sales needed to break even vary between 1,300 and 2,000. As of June 2025, the 787 programme has received 2,137 orders and made 1,189 deliveries.

Quality Control Issues with the Dreamliner

By around 2019, reports began to emerge about quality-control issues and the jet’s safety. KLM Airlines had discovered loose seats, missing and incorrectly installed pins, nuts and bolts not fully tightened and a fuel-line clamp left unsecured on its jet. Early in 2020, Boeing engineers complained about depressions in the 787’s vertical tail fin, affecting hundreds of planes or the vast majority of the fleet. Workers at Boeing aircraft plants had improperly discarded shims before the final installation of fasteners, which could lead to structural failure under limited loads. In late August 2020, Boeing grounded eight 787s due to such improper fuselage shimming and inner skin surfacing issues.

Later Boeing admitted that “nonconforming” sections of the rear fuselage did not meet engineering standards, and the FAA was investigating quality-control lapses dating back to the introduction of the 787 in 2011 and considering requiring additional inspections for up to 900 of the roughly 1,000 Dreamliners in service. Another quality-control issue then emerged, which was with the 787’s horizontal stabilisers, affecting as many as 893 aircraft. Portions of the tail section were clamped too tightly, which could lead to premature material fatigue.

By January 2021, Boeing had halted 787 deliveries to complete the inspection relating to poor quality control, forcing the FAA in March to withdraw Boeing’s delegated authority to inspect and sign off on four new 787s, saying that it would extend this withdrawal to further aircraft if needed. Boeing briefly resumed deliveries on March 26, 2021, but deliveries ceased again in May 2021. Effectively, almost all deliveries had been paused for nearly a year. The delay generated $1 billion in abnormal costs and caused the company to cut production to around two planes a month.

In July, Boeing discovered gaps at joints in the forward pressure bulkhead and again reduced production. Boeing worked with the FAA to fix the problem. In late November it was reported that the FAA had discovered further problems, including additional out-of-tolerance gaps and contamination and associated weakening of fuselage composites. The rectification process for existing aircraft was complex due to a lack of detailed configuration data on each aircraft. The new problems and the extension of the 13-month-long disruption to 787 deliveries angered buyers.

In February 2022, the FAA announced that it would withdraw Boeing’s delegated authority to issue airworthiness certificates for individual 787 aircraft until Boeing can demonstrate consistent quality, stable delivery processes, and a robust plan for the rework needed on the undelivered aircraft in storage. After considerable loss of time and delays in production, in late July, the FAA approved Boeing’s revised certification package. Deliveries resumed in August.

There were lithium-ion battery problems. On January 14, 2014, a battery in a JAL 787 emitted smoke from the battery’s protection exhaust while the aircraft was undergoing pre-flight maintenance at Tokyo Narita Airport. The battery partially melted in the incident. One of its eight lithium-ion cells had its relief port vent and fluid sprayed inside the battery’s container. It was later reported that the battery may have reached a temperature as high as 1,220°F (660°C). The NTSB criticised the FAA, Boeing, and battery manufacturers for the faults. Boeing added a 185 lb (84 kg) heavier battery, negating the lighter battery issues.

Ahmedabad Airport

Ahmedabad’s Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport is the busiest and largest airport in Gujarat and is the seventh busiest airport in India. In fiscal year 2024–25, it handled over 13 million passengers. International operations began on January 26, 1991. In March 2004, Air India commenced service to London’s Heathrow Airport on a Boeing 747. In August 2016, Air India began service with the Boeing 787.

The airport currently consists of four terminals: domestic, international, an additional terminal for secondary traffic and a cargo terminal. The new terminal has been modelled based on Singapore Changi Airport. The airport has a single runway that is 3,505 metres (11,499 ft) long. There are flights to Europe, Africa, West Asia and Southeast Asia.

Among the major accidents at this airport was Indian Airlines Flight 113, operating from Mumbai to Ahmedabad, which crashed on final approach to the airport on October 19, 1988, killing 130 people, including all 6 crew members. On a foggy day, an aircraft struck trees and a high-tension pylon 5 km from Runway 23, thus crashing into a field and bursting into flames. The next one was Jet Airways Flight 2510, operating from Indore to Ahmedabad, which collapsed on the runway while landing at the airport on July 22, 2010. There were 57 passengers and 4 crew members on board the ATR flight. The nose wheel reportedly collapsed due to a tyre burst, causing some passengers to receive minor injuries.

Major Causes of Take-Off and Landing Accidents

The most common accidents in the aviation industry and the most intense loss of life and property are accidents not far from airports. Takeoffs and landings are the moments when the plane is closest to the ground, with a high weight and fuel state at take-off and significant speed, and usually the pilots do not have enough time and altitude to avoid accidents. Also, the landing and take-off times are when the planes are closest to each other.

Other than aircrew errors, technical defects, lack of situational awareness, cockpit crew resource management, incorrect take-off/landing performance calculations, excessive tail or cross-winds, late rejection of take-off, late touchdown, wind shear, tyre deflation on landing, brake failure, reverse thrust failure, icy/wet runways, incorrect ATC instructions or interpretation, technical problems with landing gear, inadequate engine thrust, loss of engine at critical time during take-off, and asymmetric thrust, there are many causes for take-off and landing accidents.

A Few Major Take-Off and Landing Accidents

• May 25, 1979, American Airlines Flight 191, after takeoff from Des Plaines, Illinois, US, lost its left engine. Engine detached due to improper maintenance and repairs, causing hydraulic and fuel leaks and loss of control. An aircraft crashed and involved 273 fatalities.

• April 26, 1994, China Airlines Flight 140, Airbus A300B4-622R, stalled and crashed while landing due to pilot error at Nagoya Airport, Japan. Fatalities: 264; survivors: 7.

• July 11, 1991, Nigeria Airways Flight 2120, Douglas DC-8-61, caught fire after take-off from King Abdulaziz International Airport due to an underinflated tyre overheating. The aircraft crashed while attempting to return for an emergency landing, killing all 247 passengers and 14 crew members.

• April 11, 2018, an Ilyushin Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Algerian Air Force crashed shortly after take-off from Boufarik Airport, Algeria. All 257 people on board were killed, making the accident the deadliest air crash on Algerian soil. The crash is also the deadliest accident on the African continent. The aircraft crashed just outside the perimeter of the airport. Witnesses reported that the wing of the aircraft had caught fire prior to the crash.

• January 8, 1996, a Moscow Airways Antonov An-32B operating on behalf of Air Africa overran the runway at N’Dolo Airport after attempting to take off overloaded. The aircraft was flying from Kinshasa to Kahemba, Zaire. The aircraft ploughed into Kinshasa’s Simbazikita street market. Four of the six crew of the aircraft survived the accident. On the ground, however, it is estimated that there were between 225 and 348 fatalities, with more than 500 people injured.

• Korean Air Flight 801 was a scheduled international passenger flight from Seoul to Guam. On August 6, 1997, the Boeing 747-300 crashed into Bijia Peak while on approach to the destination airport, killing 229 of the 254 people aboard. Poor communication between the flight crew was the probable cause of this accident, along with the captain’s poor decision-making on the non-precision approach.

•  February 16, 1998, China Airlines Flight 676, the Airbus A300 jet airliner was en route from Bali, Indonesia, to Taipei, Taiwan. The weather was inclement, with rain and fog, when the aircraft approached Chiang Kai-shek International Airport. The pilot executed a missed approach and attempted a manual go-around. The jet slowed, pitched up by 40°, rose 1,000 feet, stalled, and crashed into a residential neighbourhood, killing all 196 people on board.

• Air India Express Flight 812 landed beyond the normal touchdown point and overshot and crashed across a cliff at Mangalore on May 22, 2010. This third most deadly aviation disaster in India resulted in 158 fatalities.

Air Travel is Safe

Aviation is growing exponentially. Soon there will be uncrewed urban air mobility. The global civil aircraft accident rate for 2024 was 1.13 accidents per million flights, according to International Air Transport Association (IATA). This rate is better than the previous five-year average of 1.25. There were seven fatal accidents in 2024, resulting in 244 on-board fatalities. The accident rate, which is one accident per 880,000 flights, reflects the overall safety performance of the industry. The larger trend is of improvements in aviation safety, with a long-term reduction in accident rates.

Statistically, over 95 per cent people in all plane accidents survive. Safety in air travel has been achieved through very strict regulation, modern design, and continuous upgrading of safety equipment. Similarly, there are better technology aids for aircrew and ATC controllers for faster and correct decision-making.

An increased number and frequency of flights puts its own pressure. The gap between landing aircraft has been gradually reduced at modern airports, which can one day be able to handle 100 flights an hour. This adds to the risk of error. Take-off and landing accidents are often due to a combination of factors. Aircraft systems failure, bird hit, human error by aircrew and ATC controllers are the main factors.

The first aircraft accident in which 200 or more people died occurred on March 3, 1974, when 346 died in the crash of Turkish Airlines Flight 981. As of June 2025, there have been 34 aviation accidents in which 200 or more people died. The largest loss of life on board a single aircraft is the 520 fatalities in the 1985 Japan Airlines Flight 123 accident. The largest loss of life in multiple aircraft in a single accident is the 583 fatalities in the two Boeing 747s that collided in the 1977 Tenerife airport disaster, while the largest loss of life overall in a collective incident is the 2,996 fatalities in the coordinated terrorist destruction of aeroplanes and occupied buildings in the 2001 September 11 attacks.

The Aircraft Crashes Record Office (ACRO), a non-government organisation based in Geneva, indicates that the last 10 years have seen fewer than 150 accidents a year compared to over 200 a year in the earlier decade. 56 per cent of all accidents are attributed to pilot/human error, 17 per cent to technical flaws, 13 per cent to weather and the remaining to miscellaneous causes like air traffic control error (4 per cent), mid-air collisions, sabotage, bird strikes, hijacking, shooting down, etc.

A Boeing study over the last 50 years indicates that most on-board fatalities occur in accidents during approach and landing (60 per cent), take-off (12 per cent) and the rest in other phases or causes. The odds of at least one fatality on your flight are 1:3.4 million (1:10 million in the top 40 airlines). Good reason to choose a reputed airline. There is a 25 per cent chance of surviving even a fatal crash. 53 per cent chance of survival when an aircraft ditches in water. According to a study by the European Transport Safety Council, plane crashes technically have a 90 per cent survivability rate, and this figure is increasing, largely thanks to modern aircraft design, which features enough exits to allow for a full passenger evacuation in around 90 seconds.

In over one hundred years of implementation, aviation safety has improved considerably. Aviation safety equipment, in itself, is now a multi-billion-dollar industry. A poor safety record in the aviation industry is a threat to corporate survival.

In an effort to prevent incidents such as the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, a new standard has been issued by ICAO in 2016 requiring all commercial aircraft to report their position every 15 minutes to air traffic controllers regardless of the country of origin. It is part of a long-term plan, called the Global Aeronautical Distress and Safety System (GADSS), which will require new aircraft to be equipped with data broadcast systems that are in constant contact with air traffic controllers. The GADSS is similar to the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) used for maritime safety.

Measured on a passenger-distance calculation, air travel is the safest form of transportation available. This statistic is used by the insurance industry when calculating insurance rates for air travel. For every billion kilometres travelled, trains have a fatality rate that is 12 times higher than that of air travel, and the fatality rate for automobiles is 62 times greater than for air travel. By contrast, for every billion journeys taken, buses are the safest form of transportation; using this measure, air travel is three times more dangerous than car transportation and almost 30 times more dangerous than travelling by bus.

As per the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), civil air passengers are increasing 5 per cent per year, and by 2030 they are expected to be 6 billion. India is the fastest-growing civil aviation market. Air is going to be the means of travel for more and more people. Everyone involved in operating a flight has to have situational awareness. Lives are too precious to lose.

The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.